got bored and decided to look into a claim that "2024 was decided by people who didn't vote"

https://obvious-humor.com/post/768061906992939009

tldr: it was decided by people who *did* vote. for trump.

- "lower turnout" was in states like california and new york -- blue states that stayed blue
- "higher turnout" was in "battleground states" which trump won *because* of higher turnout.
- out of gained voted for trump, 60% from higher turnout, 40% from flipped D-to-R vote

it's always boring when the conclusion is mostly a common-sense thing, but that usually just means that the analysis is at least consistent with reality in some form

like "you win elections by getting people to vote for you" -- trump 2024's GOTV (get out the vote) effort was significant

or "alternative votes continue to be utterly insignificant" -- far, *far* more democrats voted for trump than all people voted for all alternatives combined

other "fun" takeaways using michigan as an example:

- approximately 0% of people who voted biden 2020 chose to stay home for 2024 -- the "democrat base" was consistent 2020-2024

- of the higher turnout, 80% went trump but 20% went for alternatives -- likely some of that 20% was the "protest vote"

- the total active registered voter count was pretty much the same -- higher turnout came from existing voters not newly-registered ones