With respect to #ActivityPub:
Simply, having now seen more into the guts of the process and how it is managed both historically and today, and understanding how the w3c works, I have no faith in their ability to define a clear consensus way forward out of the current set of problems.
Not "no faith in <timeline>" but no faith in the ability to define a clear way forward here.
This doesn't mean that someone outside of w3c couldn't define a better way forward, even one using AP, but w3c won't.